A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
