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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.