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At first, Trump gave the impression to adopt a firm stance on the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering threats of "serious ramifications" during the summer if Russia's president persisted blocking ceasefire discussions, the former president ultimately introduced major sanctions on the Russian biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly affected the Russian leader's capacity to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

However, with his latest detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, that was created by both nations' officials lacking Ukrainian or EU involvement, the former president has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia position.

Benefiting Aggression

The former president's initiative would in practice favor Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", much of the plan in reality weaken that same independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his real-estate past, Trump continues to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a mere territorial dispute, as if giving Putin a portion of Ukrainian land will satisfy the ruler. However, Putin's invasion is not merely about dominating a damaged region of economically weakened area in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to weaken it so it no longer acts as an attractive standard for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that Putin's growing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Territorial Concessions

Although keeping in status the currently divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would require Ukraine to abandon the whole Donetsk province. In addition to favoring Russia with territory that its forces have been failed to occupy in over a ten years of conflict, this surrender would render Ukrainian defensive positions severely compromised.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the entrenched military defenses that constitute a essential obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these positions, giving Russian forces a open route to the capital should he eventually decide to renew the war.

Defense Reductions

Then, in a move that would enable renewed fighting more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to diminish the scale of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 troops to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, the proposal sets no such limits on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as radicals, Trump's plan states: "Any extremist ideology and activities must be opposed and forbidden." As if to highlight this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal places no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his regime by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the plan makes the Russian Federation promise not to "attack bordering nations" and to "enshrine in law its position of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that Putin has violated equivalent treaties in the past – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to recognize the nation's sovereignty in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied areas in the Donbas to the government – how should we believe this commitment on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external protection assurances. Although the proposal promises a "strong joint military response" in case Russia resume its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the specifics range from vague to troubling. The initiative would not just deny Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit member states from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the reassurance force, likely commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Putin from rebuilding his diminished military, restocking, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

A separate supplementary accord reportedly would provide the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "significant, planned, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an assault threatening the stability and safety of the Western nations." This indicates a military response. Yet in contrast to a powerful national defense – Ukraine's most reliable defense against future invasion – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of Nato leaders, including Trump, to act through arms to Putin's aggression, an action they have {not